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DENVER —The engine of the American economy is trying its best to start smoothly humming again, according to last week’s release of the latest Small Business Economic Trends report (also called the Optimism Index) from NFIB, the nation’s leading small-business association. Now, can the surge in coronavirus cases abate long enough to take that engine for a test run on the road to recovery?

“The latest findings from our Small Business Economic Trends report were better than I expected,” said Tony Gagliardi, Colorado state director for NFIB. “The bulk of the credit goes to the nat...